On a long drive yesterday (10/24) I had to listen to Mike and the Mad Dog talk about the upcoming World Series. Yes, I had to. Don’t ask me to explain or justify. Anyway, Russo was going on and on about some Vegas oddsmakers making the Red Sox favorites in the Series by Two and a Half to One. He thought this was ridiculous. I agree. I agree with Mad Dog.
Now he may have gotten this wrong. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but sometimes Mike and the Mad Dog get things wrong. Like, for example, I had a wonderful fifteen minutes yesterday before Mike realized (REALIZED!) that the 2004 Red Sox did not in fact belong on the list he had repeated several times of teams that had been inactive for over a week before the World Series. Oh man.
Anyway, who makes these odds? Don’t these guys realize that one of several things that makes baseball eternally superior to football and many other sports is that the odds are never two and a half to one that any team will beat another? Never. Take it to the bank. An excellent pennant winning team with the best record in baseball, like the 2007 Red Sox, has won 3 games for every 2 they’ve lost. On average, they do slightly better than this against under .500 teams, just about this against .500 teams, and slightly worse than this against teams over .500. When playing a team with a record of 88-74, that beat them in the season series, the odds of the Red Sox winning any single game will be less than 3 to 2.
I would have given the Red Sox three to two odds to win the Series before any game was played and that is a little generous. I cannot even imagine an argument that the Red Sox have, going into it, a 5 to 2 chance of winning this World Series.
Now that the Red Sox have won the first game 13-1, I can imagine an argument for 5-2, although I still think the odds are lower. Not every Red Sox starter is Beckett and the Rockies do have a genuinely formidable lineup. I am rooting for the Red Sox for family reasons and because I am curious to see what happens to their fan base and culture if they have to absorb the shock of two Series championships in four years. But I think the Rockies are a great story. And they do remind me a little of you-know-who. You remember, of course, who won the first game of the 1969 World Series?
