The first two weeks of the 2007 baseball season have been unusual. The start of any season is unusual. So is the end of a season, so are any two weeks in the early, middle, or late part of a season. This is one of the things about baseball. No clump of games is typical of anything. Even the most consistent players or teams cannot be expected to play at a certain predictable level over a stretch of two weeks. You remember how Keith Hernandez played? He always ended up the season with roughly comparable numbers. But over any stretch of 11 or 12 games, you could see him hitting anything between .150 and .450. A consistent player or team has a consistent ratio of streaks to slumps. It’s not as if they play at a set level, without streaks or slumps.
The Mets, as I write this, are 7-4. They have won about exactly as many games as you would expect of them at this point. At this rate, they’d win 103. They probably won’t win that many, but if they were 6-5, that would project to 89 wins. So, yes, seven out of eleven is a rate that you could expect to be typical. They’re even playing above the level one might have expected of them because nine of the eleven games they’ve played have been against much better than average teams.
They are doing unusually well in terms of batting average (.279) but their slugging percentage is only .399. Last year, the team batting average was .264, but the team slugging percentage was .445, second best in the National League. So, in spite of those eleven run blowouts, you can see their power slump as some kind of funny-looking team batting slump. In their first 11 games, the Mets have only hit 6 home runs. At this rate, they won’t hit 100. Last year, they hit 200. Delgado, Wright, Alou, and Valentin have hit a combined total of 0 home runs. Carlos Beltran leads the team with two home runs, and he hit them both in the same game. You have to assume that this power drought will not last.
The team E.R.A. of 2.69 is not going to stay that low, obviously. But although we never really have a clear sense of it, since we tend to compare our pitching with previous Mets pitching staffs, our pitching really is a lot better than other teams’ pitching. The power will come back and the pitching will not be quite as good as it’s been. We’re going to be okay. This is a fine team.
The real question facing us is the question of just how good Atlanta and Florida really are. The Phillies are going to be in there. I think we all know that, even if they’re off to a bad start. But there are some signs that Atlanta and Florida could be more formidable than we thought they would be. We didn’t think much about it last year, but Atlanta, not the Mets, had the best offensive team in the National League in 2006. If they can just get a little bit of pitching, they will be something to worry about. Florida has real pitching potential. Their offense cannot possibly stay as good as it’s been, but what if it stays good? It’ll be an interesting season, but of course it is too early to tell anything.
It is too early to tell anything. Right now, it looks as if Mike Jacobs and Kaz Matsui would make one hell of a right side of an infield. And Steve Trachsel has pitched just fine.
I guess we might have a pennant race in the NL East. And I wouldn’t trade my team for any of the other ones.
